Stock Market Preparation for Monday – A Once in a Lifetime Market Event Is Here

A once in a lifetime market event is here, and it will change everything you thought you knew about investing. The full details of what’s happening are explained in my latest video here:

Now that you know what’s happening in the macro market environment, let’s discuss what’s happening this week.

Last Week Recap

Last week saw stocks rally for the 4th week in a row, with the S&P adding another 1% to it’s month-long rally, the NASDAQ adding an additional 0.9%, the DOW adding an additional 2%, and the Russell adding an additional 0.5%.

While the rally has been impressive, stocks are now overbought, indicating a technical topping out of the market temporarily. In addition to the shortened holiday week last week, the technicals are a large reason why we didn’t see stocks rise more.

Nvidia also reported earnings last week. While Nvidia beat analyst expectations, it wasn’t enough, and NVDA fell post-earnings. NVDA fell 4.3% on Thursday and Friday combined. While significant, that move was far smaller than options traders were pricing in, causing both call and put options holders to lose money.

Market Sentiment

The CNN Fear and Greed index ( rose again last week, adding 10 points, and closing deeper in the Greed stage. Most notably, all parts of the Fear and Greed index are now between Neutral and Extreme Greed. All of the bearishness has left the stock market, and investor sentiment is hovering between neutral and extremely bullish.

The VIX fell further into bullish territory last week, closing at just 12.46 – it’s lowest level since 2020. That means the stock market is now more bullish than it was in 2021, a good sign that we might reach new all time highs soon. But do be aware that the VIX normally bottoms out here and rises a little bit in a type of relief rally, so we might see a slight fall in the stock market over the next week or two before continuing higher.

Technical Analysis

The stock market is extremely bullish – some would even say too bullish. While the technicals on all 4 of the major indices is extremely bullish, the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ are all overbought. All 3 indexes have RSI values above 70, which indicates an overbought market.

Based upon the technicals on the daily charts, we could be looking at about a 3% pull-back in the market over the next week or two before continuing higher. A pull-back of 3.1% would fill in the gap in the market from November 13. It would also represent a re-test of the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level on the DOW. A pull-back of 3% followed by a rebound back upward would be a strong indicator of a continued long term rally.

I would be looking to buy stocks heavily should the market pull-back 3% from current levels.

And with a 4th week in a row of bullishness, the markets have finally turned bullish on the weekly charts as well. Only the Russell 2000 remains neutral, struggling to get above the 200 week moving average, but otherwise showing signs of bullishness. On the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ, all weekly indicators are bullish, including the candles, MACD, and RSI.

The one thing that concerns me is that the weekly candles are far above the 10 week EMA line, which usually is an indicator that stocks are overbought and are most likely to pull-back. The 10 week EMA is hovering right around the bottom of the gap from November 13, which helps collaborate the theory that stocks are facing a 3% pull-back over the next one to two weeks.

Economic News

Black Friday sales showed another increase over 2022, with a 7.5% rise in online shopping, and a 3.0% rise overall. This should be good news for stocks as it shows consumer spending continues to be strong.

On Tuesday we have a number of Fed Governors speaking as well as the consumer confidence report for November. Over the past month, whenever a Fed member has spoken, that has been bullish for stocks, so we’ll see if that bullishness can continue on Tuesday.

On Thursday we get the PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Should the PCE show another month of declines as expected, this could be a positive boost for the stock market.

Here’s the full list of all of the economic news coming out this week as well as the time each report is being released:

Here’s what time each Fed member is speaking this week:


Earnings season remains in full-swing this week, with a number of major companies reporting earnings. On Tuesday we get Pinduoduo, Crowdstrike, and Intuit. Then on Wednesday we get Foot Locker, Dollar Tree, Snowflake, and Salesforce. Then on Thursday we get Kroger, TD Bank, Marvell, Ulta Beauty, and Dell. Then we wrap things up on Friday with BMO.

While I don’t expect any of these companies to be major market movers, we might get some movement in the Russell 2000 as we move past large-cap earnings and into the small-cap companies reporting.

Other Things to Know

Crypto continues to rally, with Bitcoin still above $37,000. Bitcoin mining stocks continued their rally last week with CLSK up 41% last week, and RIOT and MARA both up 14%. Alt coins also rose, with some rising faster than Bitcoin and Ethereum. Some stocks you might want to consider investing in, or even buying call options on, include MARA, HUT, CLSK, and RIOT. I bought call options on CLSK last week, and I plan to make more crypto trades this week.

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Wishing you the best of success trading this week,
Stock Curry

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