A famous US economist, Harry Dent, is predicting the biggest crash of our lifetime in 2024. But will we actually get a 2024 market crash? Whether or not we get a stock market crash in 2024 will depend a lot upon whether or not we get a recession in 2024. Certainly a 2024 recession could cause a market crash in 2024. But predictions for a stock market crash have been met by an equal number of predictions for a stock market rally in 2024. If this economist is right though, we could be facing an everything bubble in 2024, leading to a major banking crash, housing crash, and market crash. If we do get a stock market crash and housing market crash together, the stock market news in 2024 might cause everyone to panic, which in turn could cause the “biggest crash of our lifetime” that Harry Dent is predicting.
A US economist predicts 2024 will bring the biggest crash of our lifetime. Now, I don’t agree with everything this economist is saying, but he does bring up some very important points about the economy that you need to know about. I’m Stock Curry, I’m a former Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley investment banker. I’ve been trading for over 25 years, and I find it very important to listen to people that we don’t necessarily agree with, because very often they can give you some information that might save your portfolio from a sudden and unexpected downturn in the market. There have been many times over the years where I have listened to people that I didn’t agree with, and I was able to hedge my portfolio, make some changes, and as a result, prevent losses. So let me show you what Mr. Dent actually said. And then at the end of the video, I’m going to give you some ways that you can take action to look into this a little bit further, and perhaps protect your portfolio from an unexpected downturn.
Now the guy who made these claims is Harry Dent. When I first heard that name, I thought of Harvey Dent from Batman. But no, it’s actually Harry Dent. Harry Dent is a newsletter writer. He’s also the founder of Dent Investment Management, which is an investment firm based out of Tampa, Florida. He’s written 11 books, with his two most recent ones being best sellers. In 1990, he predicted an early 1990s recession. Harry predicted a short but sharp recession in the US from 1990 to 1991 in his book Our Power to Predict. Then in 1994, Harry accurately forecasted a great bull market from 1994 to 2000, where the Dow would rise past 10,000.
In the year 2000, at the height of the Nasdaq bubble, Harry called a top in the internet stocks, allowing his readers to cash out before the crash took place. Then in 2002, Harry forecasted a larger bull market, which would continue for the better part of a decade before a top in 2007. This prediction he made 13 years in advance in his book The Great Boom Ahead. Then in 2009, Harry, sent an update to his readers calling for a bottom in stocks, to the exact day that he sent the newsletter, urging his readers to buy stocks. In 2012, as the Federal Reserve’s easy money policies threw gasoline on the stock market, Harry predicted a huge run up in stocks, forecasting the Dow to hit 17,000 by early 2014. And now he’s warning that an everything bubble will burst in 2024, leading to the biggest crash of our lifetime.
A few years ago, Harry dent published his most recent book, where he predicted a major crash in the stock market. And now he is predicting that that crash is going to start in 2024. In an interview with Fox News, Harry said, “There’s a massive bubble in stocks, housing, crypto and other assets that’s primed to pop, and the fallout will be catastrophic.” Harry said, “Since 2009, there has been 100% artificial, unprecedented money printing and deficits. $27 trillion over 15 years to be exact. This is off the charts, 100% artificial, which means we are in a dangerous state.” Harry went on to say, “I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we’ll see in our lifetimes.”
Those are some pretty extreme predictions. But is there anything to back up what Harry’s actually saying here? Well, it is true that, historically, market bubbles are characterized by a rapid rise in stock prices before being met by a sharp fall. The economist noted that this bubble actually started in late 2021, after the height of the Covid pandemic, with the first signs showing in 2022 when the Nasdaq was down 38%. And certainly history is on Harvey’s side here. If we look at the stock market going back to 2018, the stock market went down in 2018, up in 2019, down in 2020, up in 2021, down in 2022, and up in 2023. So if the pattern were to repeat itself, which way is the market going to go in 2024? Well, if the pattern repeats itself, the market should go down.
The question is how far down the market might actually go. And according to Harry Dent, this crash is not going to be a correction. It’s going to be more in the 1929 to 1932 level during the Great Depression. He is predicting an 86% crash in the S&P, a 92% crash in the Nasdaq, and a 96% crash in crypto, with a 50% crash in the housing market. Harry Dent said, “If I’m right, it is going to be the biggest crash of our lifetime, with most of it happening in 2024.” “If I’m right” being the important words there.
I think at this point it’s important to take a look at Harry Dent’s past predictions and see just how accurate he’s actually been. Now, obviously on his website, he has posted a lot of predictions that he’s gotten right. But he very mysteriously left out all of the predictions that he got wrong.
In Dent’s best selling book, The Roaring 2000s, which was published in October of 1999, he predicted that the stock market would experience a significant boom during the first decade of the new century. This did not happen. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow finished the decade at a lower level than where they were at the end of 1999. At the end of 1999, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 11,497, and ten years later, at the end of 2009, the Dow Jones was at 10,428. Likewise, the S&P 500 at the end of 1999 was at 1,469, and ten years later it had dropped to 1,115. Then, in his book The Next Great Bubble Boom, which was published in January of 2006, he doubled down on his predictions, saying the market would see a healthy gain for the rest of the decade. Again, he was proven wrong by the financial crisis. He was then quoted on CNBC in December of 2016 as saying, I think the Dow is going to end up between 3,000 and 5,000 a couple of years from now. Again, this prediction did not come to pass. The Dow has not dropped below 19,000 since he made his prediction.
Then, in a June 2017 interview with Thinkadvisor, dent predicted a major crash in the stock market, the economy, and in real estate, over the next three years. Now, this prediction did come true. First, in 2018, major market averages finished the year down, with the S&P 500 losing more than 6%. Then we saw a brief major market decline that began in March of 2020 as the impact of the Covid pandemic became widespread. But then in 2021, Dent predicted in March of 2021 that we would see the biggest market crash ever by the end of June. This prediction did not come to pass either, and on June 30th, the S&P 500 closed near a record level and the economy had not collapsed. In July of 2021, he followed up with a prediction indicating that most equities would drop by 80% in the fall, which did not happen either. Now, to be fair, the market did crash a few months later in 2022, so perhaps that prediction was just a little off on the timing.
Still, you do have to wonder, why do people listen to Harry Dent in light of his obvious inability to accurately predict the future? Over the decades, Harry dent has made a lot of predictions, and a lot of those predictions have come true, and a lot of those predictions have not come true. He’s been right a lot, and he’s been wrong a lot. And this is just the way it is when you’re trying to predict the future. The truth of the matter is, nobody accurately knows what the future is going to hold. Nobody knows what the stock market is going to do tomorrow. Nobody knows what the stock market is going to do a year from now or five years from now.
Nobody actually knows what the stock market is going to do in 2024. The best we can do is listen to the bulls, listen to all the reasons why the stock market might go up, listen to the bears, listen to all the reasons why the stock market might go down, and then make a decision for yourself. Make your own prediction of what you think the market is going to do in 2024.