Stock Market Prep – Bitcoin to $1 Million

Bitcoin’s price history around halving events shows Bitcoin could reach $1 million within the next 18 months. I’ll explain more in the crypto section of this newsletter. First, let’s take a look at what’s happening in the stock market this week.

Last Week Recap

The stock market fell on Tuesday after factory order data and ISM services sector data showed the US economy was slowing down, and might be entering a recession. The stock market then recovered a lot of the losses on Thursday after positive earnings. But then it fell again on Friday after the jobs data showed the unemployment rate had risen to the highest level since 2022.

The market is looking more and more like it might be in a distribution stage, which is where stocks, or in this case the entire stock market, tops out and starts to correct. I’ll discuss more about how this is playing out in the technical analysis section.

And Bitcoin hit a new all time high last week, even hitting $70,000 a few days ago. This caused MSTR and COIN to rally, although the crypto miners are lagging behind.

Market Sentiment

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ( fell 6 points last week, and fell into the Greed stage. This is the first time the Fear and Greed index has closed below the Extreme Greed stage in over a month. And it could be a warning that a correction is about to start.

The VIX rose 12% to close at 14.74 last week. That’s the highest close on the VIX since the sell-off in October 2023. It’s a clear sign that options traders are betting on the stock market correcting over the next 30 days. But options traders aren’t expecting a major drop in the market; only a small correction. A major drop won’t be evident unless the VIX rises above 20.

Technical Analysis

The daily technicals remain mostly bullish on all 4 major indices, but the technicals are starting to weaken and turn bearish. The DOW has now fallen below the 10 day EMA at the same time the MACD has formed a death cross. And with the RSI hovering around 50 (neutral), the DOW is the closest to falling into bearish territory.

The other three indexes all have their candles above the 10 day EMA and the RSI well above 50. But the MACD on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ is near flat, and no longer bullish. In short, the bullish daily technicals are starting to fade.

The weekly charts remain 100% bullish, but the candles flashed a huge warning that a pull-back might be starting. Both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 formed doji candles last week. Doji candles are often the sign of a reversal in market momentum, since they signal an equal amount of buying and selling between bulls and bears. Doji candles indicate bulls are losing control, and bears might be taking over. This is happening at the same time the RSI values remain over 70, indicating the market remains overbought, and due for a pull-back.

Of course doji candles aren’t 100% accurate. They’re only accurate about 60% of the time. But combined with the other factors, such as the RSI being overbought, the Fear and Greed index dropping below Extreme Greed, and the VIX closing at the highest level since the drop in October 2023, all of that indicates a pull-back is starting.

Economic News

This is a big week for the markets. On Tuesday, the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers are being released, and on Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers are being released. These are the last two major economic reports we’ll get before the March FOMC meeting next week.

Federal Reserve members are in a blackout period this week, so there won’t be any Fed members speaking this week. We’ll just have to wait and see how the CPI and PPI numbers come in to guess what the Federal Reserve is going to do next week.

Here’s the full list of all of the economic news coming out this week as well as the time each report is being released:

Here’s what time each Fed member is speaking this week:


This is the last big week for earnings. Earnings season officially ends this week. To wrap up the official earnings season, we have Oracle reporting on Monday and Adobe reporting on Thursday. There will still be other companies reporting after this week, but the number of companies reporting will drop off significantly.


Bitcoin hit $70,000 on Friday before pulling back slightly. It remains near a record high at $68,000. And with the Bitcoin halving event coming up, people are starting to give their price predictions on Bitcoin. I gave my prediction in Sunday night’s video, and where I see Bitcoin going might surprise you:

As a result of where I see Bitcoin going, I’ve been buying Bitcoin as well as crypto mining stocks. I still want to add on some COIN, as well as a few other stocks. While the current rally might be ending in April, I see a much larger rally starting later this year, with Bitcoin possibly hitting $1 million within 18 months.

Other Things to Know

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Wishing you the best of success trading this week,
Stock Curry

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