Stock Market Prep – Nvidia Earnings & Fed Members Talk

The hottest stock in the world is reporting earnings this week. Nvidia could set the tone for the market for the next 3 weeks or more. Outside of Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday, we have Fed speakers almost every day this week, as well as the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Wednesday that will move the markets.

Last Week Recap

It was the 4th green week in a row for the markets, with the DOW up 1.3%, the S&P 500 up 1.6%, the NASDAQ up 2.2%, and the Russell 2000 up 1.8%. Even though the rally appears to have no end, we are approaching some technical resistance levels soon, so make sure to read the Technical Analysis section of this newsletter.

Inflation data last week was interesting. The Producer Price Index (PPI) came in much higher than expected at 0.5% month-over-month, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in lower than expected at 0.3% month-over-month. Rarely do we have a discrepancy like that. While it’s likely that these numbers will come in-line with one another once they are revised, the stock market generally ignored the PPI data last week, and only focused on the CPI data. It’s fairly typical during a bull market for the market to rally on good data and ignore bad data, so the market reaction wasn’t shocking.

Speeches from Fed members were mixed, with some dovish comments, and some hawkish comments. So that may have muted the market rally last week.

Earnings were also mediocre last week, with some companies beating and some companies missing. Home Depot saw a continued decline in year over year revenue and earnings, although the decline did slow down. Walmart on the other hand beat expectations, leading to a rally in the stock price.

Meanwhile Red Lobster announced bankruptcy as well as the closing of 99 additional stores, while other retail chains announced layoffs. It’s clear that some stores are weathering the slowdown in consumer spending while other stores are suffering. It looks like it’s going to be a stock pickers market for the rest of the year.

Market Sentiment

With the fourth weekly rally in a row, the CNN Fear and Greed Index ( has finally risen back into the Greed stage. It’s not super strong, with some parts of the Fear and Greed index still in the Fear stage, but it’s much stronger than it was last week.

The Fear and Greed index is being propped up more by options traders than the actual stock market though. While this provides for weak bullishness, it does indicate a continuation in the rally, as options traders are usually good predictors of future stock market movements.

The VIX fell another 4% last week to close at nearly the lowest level since just before the COVID pandemic. The last time we reached this level in December of 2023, options traders started to predict a pull-back, although we did not actually get a pull-back until April of 2024. While the VIX at this level does indicate extreme bullishness in the market, this is also the level at which the VIX indicates an over-bought market that is due for a pull-back.

In short, the VIX lines up with the Fear and Greed index, which both show cautious bullishness.

Technical Analysis

The stock market has been so bullish over the past 4 weeks that the daily technicals are starting to become over-bought. The DOW is over-bought, with the RSI now above 70. The DOW is also running about 1.4% above the 10 day EMA, which indicates it is due for at least a temporary pull-back. That pull-back might happen on either Wednesday when the Fed meeting minutes are released, or on Thursday after Nvidia’s earnings. Once we get a slight pull-back, the market can continue higher without worry.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 are all in similar boats, although none are officially overbought on the RSI yet.

Despite the 4th weekly rally in a row, somehow the weekly technicals have not yet turned 100% bullish. And to make matters worse, the DOW and S&P 500 are both nearing technical resistance levels. The DOW has a technical resistance level just 1.5% above Friday’s closing price, while the S&P 500 has a technical resistance level just 2% above Friday’s closing price. Both of these technical levels are the 161.8% Fibonacci Retracement levels.

Considering how the stock market normally rallies up until the last week of May, and then sells off in what is known as “Sell in May, and Go Away”, a rise of another 2% this week, followed by a sharp sell-off next week, would line up perfectly with the historical performance of the stock market. If the stock market does in fact rise this week, and then sell-off sharply next week, we should see the stock market bottom out in the middle of June, and then continue its rally after that (based upon history).

Economic News

The only major economic news we have this week are the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday. Outside of that, investors will have to watch out for numerous Federal Reserve member speakers throughout the week.

With a lack of economic news, the market should rise, especially on Monday and Tuesday. During bull markets, no news is good news, and usually we see the market rise on no-news days.

Here’s the full list of all of the economic news coming out this week as well as the time each report is being released:

Here’s what time each Fed member is speaking this week:


Earnings season is coming to an end, but it’s not over yet. This week, the hottest stock in the market reports earnings. Nvidia is reporting earnings Wednesday after the close, and it will move the markets significantly on Thursday. Outside of Nvidia, we have Paloalto and Zoom reporting on Monday. We have ZIM, Macy’s, Lowe’s, and Toll Brothers reporting on Tuesday. We also have Target, TJX, Snowflake, and Elf reporting on Wednesday. And we wrap things up on Thursday with quite a few more retail brands as well as Intuit.


Bitcoin has broken out of its slump and started to rise. Some of this may be due to hype around the possibility of Ethereum ETFs being launched. But buyer beware, because there are some rumors that although the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, they might not approve spot Ethereum ETFs. Regardless, Bitcoin is still trading in the channel between $58,000 and $72,000 that its been in since late March. Until Bitcoin breaks out in either direction, it’s just a wait and see time period for crypto.

Other Things to Know

My new book has just been released! This is the ultimate trading journal, designed to help you become a more profitable trader. The book is available on my website at

Multiple trading platforms continue to offer free stocks and high yields on cash. So get your free stocks while you still can at

To get this newsletter delivered to your email for free each week, add your email to the list here:

And if you haven’t already signed up for my free giveaways, you can do so by clicking the purple button at the bottom of

Wishing you the best of success trading this week,
Stock Curry

Shopping Cart