You Won’t Believe What This 100-Year Chart PREDICTS for the 2024 Stock Market

This 100-year chart of the stock market shows a shocking pattern for the month of December. The stock market December prediction is bullish, but just how bullish is quite shocking. In addition to the December stock market prediction, we’ll also take a look at the 2024 stock market forecast and see what the 2024 stock market predictions show. Finally we look at the market analysis for tomorrow and give you tomorrow’s market prediction based upon today’s market analysis.

You won’t believe what this 100 year chart shows for the stock market for December and into 2024. Going back 100 years, the stock market rises 69% of the time in December, which is far higher than any other month of the year, making December the most profitable month of the year in the stock market. But with more and more people calling for a recession in 2024, can the stock market rise this December? And more importantly, will the stock market rise next year in 2024?

I’m Stock Curry. I’m a former Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley investment banker, and I have over 25 years of trading experience. I’ve seen it all before, from the dot com bubble, to the 2008 financial crisis, and all of the rallies in between. And what I am seeing right now is the stock market poised to continue to go higher. Investors remain quite bullish in the stock market, with the CNN Fear and Greed Index rising to 67. That puts the index well into the greed stage, which indicates the stock market will continue to rise. And with Bitcoin rising above $40,000 for the first time in over a year, this should give even more hope to bulls that everything is about to skyrocket.

The reason December is historically one of the best months of the year for the stock market has to do with psychology, market sentiment, and other factors. As investors become extremely happy, they tend to buy more stocks, and the stock market tends to rise. December is generally considered to be a pretty happy month for people, given the fact that the holidays are coming up, especially Christmas. And this leads to something called a Santa Claus Rally. A Santa Claus rally is the sustained increase in the stock market that usually starts around the Christmas holiday on December 25th. Most estimate that these rallies happen in the first week leading up to the Christmas holiday, while others see the rally starting on Christmas Day and running through January 2nd. The one exception to that is December 31st, or the last trading day in December is, where we generally see a lot of selling as people try to do tax loss harvesting.

The Santa Claus rally was first discovered in 1972, looking at the final five trading days of the year and the first two trading days in January. This seven day period has historically shown higher stock prices nearly 80% of the time in the S&P 500. The Santa Claus rally, as well as the other bullishness throughout the rest of the month of December, leads the market to rise in December by an average of 1.3%, making it the third best month of the year by average percent gained. So despite the fears of a possible upcoming recession, the stock market should continue to rally in December, just like it historically has over the past 100 years.

Now, just because the stock market will most likely rally in December does not necessarily mean that it will continue to go up in 2024. So let’s talk about some of the predictions for next year. Then let’s talk about what’s going to happen this week.

The 2024 S&P 500 price targets are all over the board, but they are generally either neutral or bullish. There is one company who is bearish however, and that is JP Morgan Chase. With the S&P 500 currently at 4600, JP Morgan sees a drop in the S&P 500 next year of around 8%. JP Morgan says that a step down in economic growth next year will lead to eroding household excess savings and liquidity, as well as tightening credit. And negative corporate sentiment should be a catalyst for sharply lower estimates next year.

However, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Wells Fargo all see the stock market trading flat next year. Morgan Stanley says a recovery in growth next year is going to help push the stock market higher. However, they forecast a 17 forward PE ratio at the end of next year, and it is currently at 18.1, pushing the stock market slightly lower. Overall, generally flat. And while Wells Fargo says the S&P 500 in 2024 is expected to be flattish, they do expect increased volatility. Increased volatility means a lot of swings between highs and lows and very large movements in the stock market. Meaning even if we do finish the year flat in 2024, we could have a major rally, a major selloff, and everywhere in between. This could make it a great time for both day traders and swing traders. But 2024 could be very frustrating for long term investors.

But not everybody sees the stock market falling or trading flat. Goldman Sachs, Soc Gen and Barclays all see the stock market rising slightly next year. Goldman Sachs says the US economy will avoid a recession, earnings will rise by 5%, and the valuation of the equity market – that is, the stock market – will equal 18, which is very close to the current PE level. Soc Gen says that while the S&P 500 should remain in a buy-the-dip territory, which is bullish, the journey to the end of the year would be far from smooth, as they do expect a mild recession in the middle of the year. In other words, the people that expect the stock market to rise slightly next year, expect the stock market to rise significantly in the first half of the year, but then sell off in the second half of the year, leading to a slight gain overall on the year.

But then there are some forecasts expecting a massive rally in the stock market in 2024. Deutsche Bank, BMO and Capital Economics all see the stock market rallying in 2024. Deutsche Bank says they do not think valuations are high right now, and that valuations could actually continue to go higher. BMO says US stocks will attain another year of positive returns, although demonstrating a more sanguine, broadly distributed market – meaning it won’t just be tech stocks that rally in 2024, but instead the entire stock market will actually rally. Throughout 2023, we’ve mainly seen 7 stocks go up, while the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 have traded flat. However, BMO now sees the rest of the stock market starting to rally into 2024.

And finally, the most bullish of the bunch, Capital Economics, which sees the stock market rising by about 15% next year, says it’s still time for the S&P 500 to party like it’s 1999. For those of you old enough to remember 1999, the stock market did rally. However, it also led to the dot com bubble in 2000 and 2001. And that’s the point where the Nasdaq fell by 80% over two years. So in general, even though the stock market does rise and continue to rally, it might not be that long lived going into 2025.

Now let’s talk about what’s going to happen this week in the stock market. And we do have some major economic news coming out this week. On Wednesday, we have the ADP private payrolls report that is expected to show the job market improving. Then on Friday, we get the official US job numbers for November, which is expected to show the labor market improving and the US unemployment rate remaining quite low. Also this coming week, we have earnings from some big meme stocks, including Nio, GameStop and C3.AI. Now, if the jobs numbers do come in as good as they are expected to come in, that, combined with the low inflation report we got last week, should help push stocks higher again.

This coming week, the Federal Reserve is going to stop speaking at this point as they get ready for their last and final meeting this year. At the final Fed meeting coming up later this month, we’re going to get an update that will give us an indication about whether or not the Fed is going to continue to raise rates, and whether or not the Fed might start cutting rates soon. That also could be another trigger that causes stock market to rally once again. So altogether, we have a lot of very bullish news which could cause the stock market to go up this month. And all signs, given the market sentiment being extremely bullish, as well as the bullish economic news that’s expected to come out, should push the stock market higher in December. Obviously, 2024 is a little bit more uncertain, but the vast majority of traders do expect the stock market to rise again in 2024, with possibly a sell off in 2025.

Now, if you want more great information like this, I’m going to do a full technical analysis breakdown in my weekly newsletter that will be going out late Sunday night. If you want to get a hold of that newsletter and get it free in your inbox, all you have to do is sign up for that free weekly newsletter.

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