Stock Market Prep – Earnings, Halvings, and Rising Prices

This week is jam packed with earnings from the largest companies in the world. We also get crucial inflation data prior to the Fed’s FOMC meeting next week. We’ll also have to keep our eye on the crypto miners now that the Bitcoin halving has completed.

For a full analysis of the trades I’m making in cryptocurrency post halving, make sure to watch this video here:

Last Week Recap

The stock market sold off significantly last week, with the S&P 500 down over 3% and the NASDAQ down over 5%. It was the worst week for the stock market in 17 months, and the worst week since 2022. This is also now the worst month for the stock market since 2022. The DOW is down over 4% in April, the S&P 500 is down over 5%, the NASDAQ is down over 6%, and the Russell 2000 is down over 8%.

Investors continue to sell stocks as they re-price the likelihood of fewer, or possibly no, rate cuts this year. There is even talk of the potential for a rate increase this year. The economic data that came out last week mostly showed a strong economy, while the inflation data continued to show prices increasing. The Fed must now fight off stagflation, which is becoming more and more likely every day.

All of this selling has sent investor sentiment diving into bearish territory.

Market Sentiment

The CNN Fear and Greed Index ( now sits at 31, deep in Fear territory. Stocks continue to be the shining light, as Market Momentum remains Neutral. Stock Price Strength and Stock Price Breadth however have become bearish.

Options traders continue to lead the way, with both the put to call option ratio sitting deep in Extreme Fear, as well as the VIX sitting deep in Extreme Fear, according to the CNN Fear and Greed Index.

The VIX rose 8% again last week, this time closing at 18.71 after reaching as high as 19.56 earlier in the week. While technically still neutral, the VIX is teetering on the edge of bearishness. Any number above 20 indicates a bear market starting. So far though, the VIX is only indicating a pull-back or correction, not a full on bear market.

Technical Analysis

The daily technicals continue to be 100% bearish, and now the charts are starting to look like falling knives. If there’s any good news, it’s that the DOW seems to have found support at the 100 day EMA. Unfortunately that hasn’t stopped the S&P and NASDAQ from continuing to freefall downward.

It does look like we might get a little bit of relief from the drop this week though, as the NASDAQ has now become oversold on the daily chart, and the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are both very close to oversold. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight rebound this week before continuing lower next week.

After last week’s drop, the weekly charts are now 100% bearish, with confirmation from the MACD and RSI. Unfortunately the markets have not yet hit historical support levels, and it does look like the markets will continue to drop.

The DOW still needs to fall another 3% – 5% to find support. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ need to fall another 4% – 10% to bottom out. And the Russell 2000 needs to fall another 2% – 7% to find support.

Economic News

There’s a lot of economic news coming out this week that might move the markets slightly, but there’s nothing major that could change the direction of the stock market right now. With no news on Monday, there’s a good chance the market could rise as investors breath a sigh of relief.

The largest market moving data points will come on Thursday when Q1 GDP is released, and again on Friday when the PCE inflation data is released. There are no Fed speakers this week, as next week is the May FOMC meeting, and Federal Reserve members are in a blackout period this week.

Here’s the full list of all of the economic news coming out this week as well as the time each report is being released:

Here’s what time each Fed member is speaking this week:


Earnings season continues this week with some major tech companies reporting earnings. This week’s earnings will have a major impact on the NASDAQ and S&P 500.

Most notably, we have Tesla reporting Tuesday, Meta reporting Wednesday, and both Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) reporting Thursday.


The Bitcoin halving is now complete, and with it comes major changes for Bitcoin miners. I explained those changes in detail in this video here:

The good news is that we did not see a major sell-off in Bitcoin over the weekend. In fact, Bitcoin’s price remained fairly flat. What was shocking though was the rally in alt-coins. Because alt-coins are rising once again, this could be an incredible dip buying opportunity on alt-coins and meme coins after the sell-off earlier this month.

Other Things to Know

My new book has just been released! This is the ultimate trading journal, designed to help you become a more profitable trader. The book is available on my website at

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Wishing you the best of success trading this week,
Stock Curry

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